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Predictions for 2026

   By Joshua Arce

A Hopeful, Hard-Working Year Ahead for Native Communities

As we look toward 2026, Native communities and the organizations that work alongside them are preparing for a year shaped by both challenge and opportunity. Shifts in federal priorities, economic uncertainty, and persistent inequities across Indian Country point to a demanding year ahead. At the same time, moments like these have historically revealed the strength of Native communities, the importance of trusted partnerships, and the power of visibility to drive meaningful change.

This is not unfamiliar territory. In recent years, Native Nations have navigated periods of heightened uncertainty, strained systems, and rapidly escalating needs. During those moments, community networks, tribal leadership, and nonprofit partners mobilized to ensure families had access to heat, food, education support, and emergency relief. While the circumstances facing us in 2026 are different, the underlying lesson remains the same: progress depends on clear communication, sustained commitment, and an honest assessment of what communities need to move forward.

Increased Need, Reduced Safety Nets

Early indicators suggest that nonprofit organizations serving communities experiencing poverty may face increased demand in 2026, even as public funding becomes less predictable. Federal downsizing, shifting agency priorities, and reduced support for certain programs may disproportionately affect Native communities — often the first to feel the impact of policy changes.

For tribal nations, these shifts are not simply budgetary concerns. They directly affect services tied to treaty and trust responsibilities, including health care, housing, education, and food security. When federal systems falter or pull back, the consequences are felt at the community level, reinforcing the need for responsive, locally informed solutions.

The Need to Keep Telling Stories that Matter

One of the realities of working in Indian Country is that many of the most serious challenges do not receive widespread media coverage. Natural disasters like the San Juan tornado or severe storms impacting places like Leech Lake often pass with little national attention. Yet for the families and communities affected, the consequences are immediate and long-lasting.

In 2026, keeping a steady stream of stories in the news feed will be essential. Not for visibility alone, but because awareness shapes policy, public understanding, and philanthropy. When Native voices are absent from the broader conversation, their needs risk being overlooked. PWNA will continue to elevate stories from our program partners and the communities they support, while also encouraging allies, advocates, and media partners to help ensure Native voices remain present and heard.

Shifting Federal Priorities, Expanding the Role of Community-Based Organizations

As federal priorities continue to evolve, new gaps are likely to emerge in how services reach Native communities. Changes in domestic spending, agency restructuring, and international aid priorities may redirect resources in ways that leave rural and underserved areas with fewer supports.

In this environment, community-based organizations play an increasingly critical role. Organizations that work directly with tribal partners and local programs are best positioned to respond quickly, adapt to changing conditions, and deliver support in culturally appropriate ways when systems fall short. In 2026, this bridge between policy and practice may become even more essential.

Tribal Sovereignty in a Shifting Policy Landscape

As national conversations around Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion continue to shift, 2026 will require renewed clarity around the political status of Native Nations. Tribal nations are not part of DEI frameworks; they are sovereign governments with rights rooted in treaties, the U.S. Constitution, and legally binding trust responsibilities creating a politically distinct people.

In recent years, tribes have increasingly had to reassert this distinction as policies, funding decisions, and executive actions risk lumping Native affairs into broader equity conversations that do not reflect their political status. Looking ahead, tribal leaders will likely spend significant effort ensuring that policy changes, funding freezes, or reduced consultation do not undermine sovereignty. Protecting tribal authority over education, health care, child welfare, land, and cultural preservation will remain essential as federal priorities evolve.

Steady Focus on the Road Forward

The year ahead will test the resilience of nonprofit organizations and the communities they support. Some will adapt by clearly demonstrating their value and impact. Others may struggle amid uncertainty and limited resources. Our hope — and our belief — is that people will recognize the importance of standing with Native communities, just as they have in the past.

At PWNA, our focus remains steady: elevating stories that often go untold, responding to urgent needs, and supporting long-term solutions that strengthen Native sovereignty and self-sufficiency. While the road ahead may be complex, it also presents an opportunity to reaffirm shared responsibility, deepen collaboration, and ensure Native communities are not navigating change alone. Allyship is enjoying the success stories we share, sharing the work that we do, and supporting the organization to carry it out, which will be more important than ever.

If history is any guide, when the need is clear and the mission is strong, people will show up. In 2026, we invite you to continue walking alongside Native communities — helping ensure that even in uncertain times, progress remains possible.